The surge in military takeovers across the African continent over the past half-decade represents a fundamental rupture in regional governance, evolving from a series of domestic crises into a documented ‘coup contagion’. The Mali coup acted as a regional icebreaker, shattering a decade-long period of relative democratic stability and emboldening junior officers across the Sahel and beyond. The continent has since witnessed a significant reversal of democratic trends, creating a ‘Coup Belt’ that stretches from the Atlantic coast of Guinea through to the Red Sea in Sudan coinciding with a geopolitical shift marked by the decline of the international rules-based order and the weakening of external deterrence against unconstitutional seizures of power…

Grey zone warfare, while not new, has become a more visible and frequent feature of the operating environment for organisations working across politically contested or strategically sensitive landscapes, following a decade of increasingly tense geopolitical relations between world powers. Grey zone warfare tactics operate in the space between diplomacy and warfare, relying on a range of indirect and direct methods that are publicly deniable, difficult to respond to conventionally, and highly disruptive…

In response to Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine, China’s relentlessly growing defence budget and regional assertiveness, and Donald Trump’s isolationist, realpolitik approach to foreign policy, other global powers have begun to read the room, prioritising the build-up of their own hard power, often at the expense of soft power. This shift will have profound implications for the prospects of war, geopolitical stability, and global security.

On 1 November 2024, Jamalat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) attacked a military-escorted commercial convoy near Petel Kole in the Tillabéri Region, Niger, killing at least 20 people. This latest incident reflects the escalating threat posed by Islamist militants in the region to both military forces and commercial routes…

COP29, the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, will convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11-22 November 2024. As global leaders, activists, and organisations come together to advance international climate action, it's essential to recognise and prepare for the associated security risks at such a high-profile event…